Warning for a belligerent 2020

The death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani through an American drone attack put the world on warning. The military action has opened a large set of future possibilities and so strongly endangered the regional stability of the Middle East and the pursuit of world peace. The death of a key Iranian officer, following a direct order of US President Donald Trump, puts everyone on alert about the dreaded consequences.

Qasem Soleimani and Ayatollah Khamenei: attack puts the world in warning

Soleimani was not a terrorist cell chief like several ones that the US Army has exterminated in recent years - the most famous of them was the attack ordered by former President Barack Obama that killed the terrorist Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011. He was the commander of the Quds Force, intelligence and secret missions arm of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran. He was considered the great military strategist of his country, especially in actions within the unsettled Middle East.

He was a charismatic and dear person in Iran. He actively participated in the missions, being very close to the conflict areas. This feature put Soleimani in a risky position. Due to it, former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama had chances to order attacks to kill him during their terms, but they did not. They considered the action would cause a severe blow to regional stability.

Officially, the United States announced that the operation that killed Qasem Soleimani was a pre-emptive strike as it was planning offensives against US targets and would have authorized recent hostility against the US embassy in Baghdad. However, a far-reaching strategy may be behind this action. Without Soleimani, Iran loses its greatest military strategist, the trusted man of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It creates internal instability in the Iranian government, which will no longer rely on his services and will have to find a replacement in the midst of the crisis.

And what will be the consequence of this act? Iran has promised a rematch and should do it. In fact, some action may have already taken while you are reading this article since international politics is extremely dynamic. Analysts believe that Trump entered in a totally unpredictable territory with the offensive. In any case, attacks on US positions in the Middle East are expected in countries such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iraq.

There are risks to peace in other parts of the world in the medium and long term. It is good to remember that Iran is an extremely important character for geopolitics and one of Russia's strategic allies. But for now, actions are expected to focus on the Middle East. In the economic field, the attack raises the price of oil - which is likely to raise the value of fuels in Brazil, according to Petrobras policy - and capital flight from emerging markets. In the presence of risk, investors prefer secure investments in stable countries. And 2020, no doubt, starts off uncertain.

Photo: Farsi Khamenei


* This article was previously published in Portuguese in the Brazilian newspaper O Popular. If you want to read it, please click here.

Britons have chosen the path to Brexit. And now?

The UK finally chose a way out for Brexit. Whether for good or for bad, only time will show. Despite the many obstacles to the project's completion, the result of the ballot takes the country out from the obstacle created during the term of the former Prime Minister David Cameron. In 2016, he promoted the referendum about the country's leave from the European Union (EU). Following last week's elections, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will have more than enough support to approve his agreement with the EU Council in the House of Commons. Thus, the separation should be completed.

Boris Johnson obtained the majority and now has green signal for Brexit

It is quite clear that Brexit has divided the British people in recent years between leave (supporting exit) and remain (supporting staying in the EU). On many occasions, a second referendum seemed to be the best way out of the impasse. Now, there is no longer this need. Through the national elections, the vast majority of the population chose the divorce with the EU by electing 365 conservative deputies (the majority occurs with 326). It allows and supports Johnson in forming a new government and passing his agreement toward Brexit.

The great fear of analysts, investors and much of British society would be a very close result that did not set a path. This would happen if no party/coalition occupied the majority of seats in Parliament. This hypothetical scenario would surely bring a few more years of unproductive discussions and postponements to Brexit. For the United Kingdom, the election was very positive. It was necessary to choose a path, and the British did it.

Johnson has won the majority and is expected to approve Brexit in the coming months. However, sensitive issues will still be a challenger for the Prime Minister. Even before the first ballot box had been opened - based on exit polling - leaders of the Scottish National Party (SNP) said in interviews that a strengthening of the party (which happened) would point the way to a new referendum about the independence of the country. It is good to remember that Scotland strongly voted against Brexit in 2016 and, after the English enthusiasm for leaving the EU, the feeling of independence towards London increased.

Another subject that should be on the UK's agenda is the new relationship with the European Union. Many argue that the country should stay close to the EU. Norway, for example, is not part of the EU but has bilateral agreements that allow people to travel freely within the bloc. Divorce details will make headlines in the coming months. For the elections, it was expected from British voters to decide a path for Brexit. And so they did it.

Photo: European Union

* This article was previously published in Portuguese in the Brazilian newspaper O Popular. If you want to read it, please click here.