 |
| Qasem Soleimani and Ayatollah Khamenei: attack puts the world in warning |
Soleimani was not a terrorist cell chief like several ones that the US Army has exterminated in recent years - the most famous of them was the attack ordered by former President Barack Obama that killed the terrorist Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011. He was the commander of the Quds Force, intelligence and secret missions arm of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran. He was considered the great military strategist of his country, especially in actions within the unsettled Middle East.
He was a charismatic and dear person in Iran. He actively participated in the missions, being very close to the conflict areas. This feature put Soleimani in a risky position. Due to it, former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama had chances to order attacks to kill him during their terms, but they did not. They considered the action would cause a severe blow to regional stability.
Officially, the United States announced that the operation that killed Qasem Soleimani was a pre-emptive strike as it was planning offensives against US targets and would have authorized recent hostility against the US embassy in Baghdad. However, a far-reaching strategy may be behind this action. Without Soleimani, Iran loses its greatest military strategist, the trusted man of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It creates internal instability in the Iranian government, which will no longer rely on his services and will have to find a replacement in the midst of the crisis.
And what will be the consequence of this act? Iran has promised a rematch and should do it. In fact, some action may have already taken while you are reading this article since international politics is extremely dynamic. Analysts believe that Trump entered in a totally unpredictable territory with the offensive. In any case, attacks on US positions in the Middle East are expected in countries such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iraq.
There are risks to peace in other parts of the world in the medium and long term. It is good to remember that Iran is an extremely important character for geopolitics and one of Russia's strategic allies. But for now, actions are expected to focus on the Middle East. In the economic field, the attack raises the price of oil - which is likely to raise the value of fuels in Brazil, according to Petrobras policy - and capital flight from emerging markets. In the presence of risk, investors prefer secure investments in stable countries. And 2020, no doubt, starts off uncertain.
Photo: Farsi Khamenei
* This article was previously published in Portuguese in the Brazilian newspaper O Popular. If you want to read it, please click here.
He was a charismatic and dear person in Iran. He actively participated in the missions, being very close to the conflict areas. This feature put Soleimani in a risky position. Due to it, former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama had chances to order attacks to kill him during their terms, but they did not. They considered the action would cause a severe blow to regional stability.
Officially, the United States announced that the operation that killed Qasem Soleimani was a pre-emptive strike as it was planning offensives against US targets and would have authorized recent hostility against the US embassy in Baghdad. However, a far-reaching strategy may be behind this action. Without Soleimani, Iran loses its greatest military strategist, the trusted man of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It creates internal instability in the Iranian government, which will no longer rely on his services and will have to find a replacement in the midst of the crisis.
And what will be the consequence of this act? Iran has promised a rematch and should do it. In fact, some action may have already taken while you are reading this article since international politics is extremely dynamic. Analysts believe that Trump entered in a totally unpredictable territory with the offensive. In any case, attacks on US positions in the Middle East are expected in countries such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iraq.
There are risks to peace in other parts of the world in the medium and long term. It is good to remember that Iran is an extremely important character for geopolitics and one of Russia's strategic allies. But for now, actions are expected to focus on the Middle East. In the economic field, the attack raises the price of oil - which is likely to raise the value of fuels in Brazil, according to Petrobras policy - and capital flight from emerging markets. In the presence of risk, investors prefer secure investments in stable countries. And 2020, no doubt, starts off uncertain.
Photo: Farsi Khamenei
* This article was previously published in Portuguese in the Brazilian newspaper O Popular. If you want to read it, please click here.
